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Stock Spams Generally Profitable

By: David Utter
2006-04-07

An analysis presented by a pair of researchers at the CanSecWest Security Conference claimed spammers could profit from "pump and dump" scams perpetrated with the help of their bulk-mailed touting messages.

Think that small-cap or micro-cap stock being promoted in a message you just received in your inbox is poised for big gains? Think again. It's more likely a one way ticket to Suckerville: Population â€" You.

A brief posted at SecurityFocus noted the results of academic analysis conducted by a pair of German researchers. They sifted through some 22,000 stock-touting messages out of the hundreds of thousands of spams received in special inboxes over a period from November 2004 to February 2006.

The spams promoted 391 different stocks, always a small-cap or micro-cap one. Those messages always arrived on weekdays, so the victims would be able to place buy orders right away if they fell for the come-on.

Performance of those stocks tended to follow a pattern after the mailings, the researchers claimed in their presentation:

Thorsten Holz, a graduate student at the Laboratory for Dependable Distributed Systems at University of Mannheim in Germany, and his co-author, Rainer Böhme of the Technische Universität Dresden, found that the price of the 93 stocks for which they could find historical data rose an average of 1.7 percent on the day that one or more e-mail messages referenced the stock. The following day, the stock price declined 0.9 percent on average, but rose by the same amount on the second day after the spam had been received. A higher volume of spam targeting a particular stock generally resulted in a greater increase in the price of that stock, the researchers found.

The discovery of flaws in software also has a detrimental effect on stock prices. Last year, a study by researchers from Carnegie-Mellon found stock prices fell when vulnerabilities became public knowledge:

"Investors pay attention and feel that (a vulnerability announcement) signals poor quality of the product and reputation loss for the firm and, hence, are willing to punish them," Rahul Telang, assistant professor of information systems at Carnegie Mellon University and co-author of the paper, said in an e-mail interview. "Therefore, we found evidence that such disclosure does create incentives for vendors to invest in better security."


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About the Author:
David Utter is a staff writer for InternetFinancialNews and WebProNews covering technology and business.




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