AdWords Traffic Estimator

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AdWords Traffic Estimator

By: Nathan Weinberg
2006-05-18

Google released an AdWords Traffic Estimator, that, without logging into an AdWords account, will give you...

...a decent idea of what you can expect advertising on certain keywords. You put in keywords, select a language and territories, and can enter a max Cost-Per-Click or daily budget, and see your results.

(via Lisa Barone)

Link: AdWords Traffic Estimator

While AdWords users can make use of this as a quick reference, it can also be a great tool for guys like me. For instance, I learned that at a "recommended" CPC (that is, whichever CPC will get you a top position 85% of the time) of 57-86 cents, I can get between 18-22,000 clicks for a search for "google". Meanwhile, the recommended $1.08-$1.61 for Microsoft means I would get 6-8,000 new readers, costing me seven to thirteen grand in ad money.

Problem is, since I don't make 57-86 cents per visitor to this blog (which would be a CPM of several hundred dollars), how the hell can a blogger make more money by advertising on Google? Short answer: You can't. As of yet, there is no way to advertise on Google and make money as an ad-supported business. You really need to be selling something, and something that makes quite a bit of money per visitor, to really justify this.

What can Google do? Again, a tough call. Letting bloggers advertise on other blogs for less money won't work, since you pay per click. To even have a shot at breaking even, every single person who arrived at your site would have to click an ad. You spent a dollar to get them here, that means you have to make back that dollar before you can even turn a profit. Needless to say, it is impossible.

I've been experimenting with AdWords to drive traffic here, and I've invested a tiny sum on super-low paying ads. I pay the bare minimum CPM of just a quarter per thousand ad impressions. While very few people actually click the ads (in fact, such a small percentage that it is almost pathetic), my ads have been shown over 200,000 times for just fifty bucks. Is that enough exposure to make it all worth it? Maybe, but I can't be sure and I can't track it.

So, that is one option: Pay fifty bucks, and marvel as a 200,000 people (maybe) discover your blog exists. That's a pretty cool way of getting exposure, except how are we going to know if it works?

I'm thinking it is time for Google to start up a AdWords For AdSense program, one that lets AdSense publishers advertise in AdWords on a backwards basis. Basically, Google lets you advertise on low-paying AdWords keywords and AdSense websites for free, but takes a larger cut of the AdSense revenue you make from the people who click through to your website.

In other words, right now, if you bought 500 $1 ads, and those people clicked on $200 worth of ads, you'd be out $300, plus Google would take their (assumed) 20% AdSense cut, leaving you with $160, a loss of $340. In AdWords For AdSense, Google would just give you $100 and charge nothing for the ads, taking a fifty percent cut of the "new business" they sent your way. Sure, you'd be getting a big discount on the AdWords ads, but you wouldn't have bought them without the discount, and Google wouldn't have sold them, anyway, since they are low-paying.

There are issues to consider: For instance, Google would have to consider the other ads on your blog (like AdBrite or BlogAds), since you might make money for those. There are solutions as well. Either Google could ban any other ad programs on those pages, or require you use Google Analytics, track the performance of the competing ad programs, and take a cut from there.

To give the new example: Google sends you 500 visitors. You make $50 from AdSense ads, but also sell $20 of Blogads and $15 for AdBrite, and sell two Amazon Associates books for $5. You made $90, so Google only gives you $5 for the AdSense ads, instead of the $50 you've earned, since it is taking a straight-up fifty percent cut of your ad revenue that results from this new program.

I think it's a killer idea, and I'll tell you this: If I were working at Google, this would be my 20% project. Could someone at Google try this out, helping bloggers and Google extend the long tail of advertising? I hope so.

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About the Author:
Nathan Weinberg writes the popular InsideGoogle blog, offering the latest news and insights about Google and search engines.

Visit the InsideGoogle blog.


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